Expanded Gambling Predictions for Kentucky
The following is a guest post from Dr. Ivan Zabilka, a research analyst for The Family Foundation of Kentucky and one of the most knowledgeable individuals in the state on attempts to expand gambling in the Commonwealth. Zabilka is a retired educator and historian. He has two theological degrees (M.Div. and Th.M.) from Asbury Theological Seminary and two degrees in U. S. History (M.A. and Ph.D.) from the University of Kentucky, with a specialty in the history of science. He has been an active opponent of gambling expansion since 1992 when he personally saw in his classroom the damage caused by gambling. He has three published books and numerous published articles in both history and about gambling.
What is in store for Kentucky?
Each year Spectrum Gaming Group puts out a list of 21 expected trends for the year. A couple of their 2010 trends relate to Kentucky.
Kentucky and Massachusetts are specifically named as states that will face increasing pressure to introduce racinos because of expansion in neighboring states. This comes as no surprise but will require continued effort on the part of us who oppose.
Another trend is that racinos are continuing to press for lowered tax rates, since they generally pay higher rates than casinos in the same state. We can expect this whining to begin the minute the racinos (if ever approved) open and fail to meet the revenue projections. This failure is a sure thing, since the projections are so high. Since the tracks have wheedled the Legislature down to about 1.5% effective tax rates, they will certainly not be satisfied with a 25-28% tax rate on the casinos.
There is an increasing trend toward electronic table games in casinos. These allow for less skill on the part of the player, and result in safer bets for the house. Even were Kentucky to approve table games we might never see a live dealer, which would undercut the jobs promises.
Gambling analysts regard the approval of Internet gambling as a sure thing, if not this year then next. Then you will be able to destroy your life from your living room with unregulated and slow to pay overseas games.
Off-reservation Indian gambling facilities are making progress against restrictions. They succeeded in getting the more recent Bush administration to change the restriction from the reservation to within 50 miles of the reservation. Now they are pressing to go anywhere in the state. Will over state lines be next? Then Kentucky could have a Cherokee casino, even though we have no recognized tribes and no reservations.
Once racinos are approved (if ever) we can then expect pressure to allow VLTs at taverns to raise the money the tracks don’t.
The pressure to expand gambling will probably never go away, until people on an individual basis decide to stop. The picture is grim, and we need continuous vigilance to avoid being overwhelmed.0 Comments posted by: Site Administrator on May 30th, 2010